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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Erin, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

1. Southwestern Gulf:
A tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms this morning. This
disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward and cross the
Yucatan Peninsula later today with no significant increase in
organization. Some development of this system is possible after it
emerges across the southwestern Gulf beginning on Thursday while the
system moves to the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure, located a few hundred miles
southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada, is producing showers and
thunderstorms, mainly to the southwest of the center. Limited
tropical or subtropical development remains possible today as the
low lingers near the relatively warm waters of the Gulf Stream.
However, by tonight, the system is forecast to move northward over
cooler waters, which will diminish its chances for any tropical
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.



Forecaster Kelly